Monday, 6 July 2020

Manx Shearwater maths

By yesterday evening we had had over 24 hours of very strong south-westerly winds: averaging 35kts, and gusting up to 50kts. This did not make it easy for birding, or even most birds, which got badly tumbled over if they attempted to fly in the gusts.

But the Manx Shearwaters early evening were simply incredible: good numbers (as far as we could see in the wind!) out south towards Skokholm, but far greater numbers north of the Deer Park into St Bride’s Bay.

We watched them with Steve and Anna from the relative shelter of the Wooltack Coastwatch Hut. There were constant large flocks flying broadly parallel with the land, and some of these came within a few hundred metres of the shore.

But even more impressive was the large, diffuse “raft” that built up. Normally Manxie rafts are pretty dense, numbering from hundred to thousands of birds; these can be seen, with a combination of luck and a scope, from the Deer Park at this time of year and, at distance, often look like a black patch on the sea.

But last night’s raft was way bigger, albeit less dense: good social distancing? We estimated that it spread from well into Musselwick bay out to beyond Wooltack Point. And it extended in depth well out into St Bride’s Bay. Because of the wind, the birds all sat facing into it, and hence we could see thousands of white breasts.

We speculated about the numbers: the raft was (conservatively) 3km wide and (at least) 1km deep; we simply could not see birds further out in the Bay because of the swell. If the Manxies were, on average 3 metres apart, this would give over 100,000 birds per square Km, and over 300,000 birds in the Bay!

One of the remarkable things about birding in Pembrokeshire is, arguably, the opportunity on occasion to see simply astonishing concentrations of birds: think of the Starling mumurations at their peaks. Yesterday evening’s Manxies definitely fell into that category: even Steve and Anna were impressed!

So, well worth coming down to the Deer Park if these very strong winds persist: you might find it hard to stand, but you could also see astonishing numbers of Manx Shearwaters.